Beware the Ides of March!

A MIS-STEP in the implementation of Order of the Manipur High Court in WP(C) No. 229 of 2023 dated 27th March 2023 could potentially drag the Naga tribes into the current conflict adversely affecting the idea of Manipur as a state. The deadline for implementation expires in the second half of March 2024. If the actions of the state government on the demand of Meitei community for inclusion in the list of STs of Manipur is interpreted as an existential crisis by the STs of Manipur (Nagas, Kuki-Zomi), then the possibility of a civil war between the tribals and non-tribals in Manipur cannot be ruled out.

Further, another new dimension is the need to recover around 4000 missing guns and lakhs of ammunition from the Meitei civilians and rope in the Meitei insurgents in peace talks so that the guns with all insurgent groups i.e. Kuki-Zomi and Meiteis are surrendered under peace agreements at one time. Guns remaining with any community in Manipur cannot instill confidence in any of the tribes or community in view of the propensity witnessed in the current conflict to turn their guns against each other community.

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(1) Two newspaper reports seem to indicate that inclusion in the list of STs and SCs in various states across the country is based mainly on political considerations. The news is disturbing in the context of the demand by the Meitei community for inclusion in the list of STs of Manipur which needs to be viewed in the backdrop of Meiteis being the majority community in the state constituting 53% (2011 census) of the state’s population, control the legislature and government, more than 3% Meitei are SCs, more than 90% are OBCs and are enjoying benefits of reservation in government jobs and education seats. The STs of Manipur constitute 41% of the states population and are very upset and disturbed that the Meitei community would corner all ST reserved benefits in the state if a favourable proposal for inclusion of Meitei community in the list of ST of Manipur is sent to the Central government. What is feared by the STs of Manipur is that a favourable proposal would result in the Meitei community becoming ST in Manipur thereby enabling them to grab the tribal lands in the hill areas of Manipur by virtue of becoming one of the STs of Manipur. There is apprehension that the current conflict between the Meitei and Kuki-Zomi may engulf the Naga tribes when the matter for implementation of the Manipur High Court order in WP(C) No. 229 of 2023 dated 27th March 2023 draws nearer on expiry of the extended time period i.e. second half of March 2024. At this point in time the current conflict could get transformed into tribal versus non-tribal as the STs would be pushed against the wall and they will have to fight for their survival. There is no doubts that they will lose all government jobs and educational seats and their lands in the hills to the Meiteis who would become ST.

(2) The Hindu on 25th July 2023 reported that the government of India is introducing three bills in Parliament for giving Scheduled Tribe status to Paharis, Gadda Brahmins and Koli in the ST list of UT Kashmir. The report further stated that protest rallies by Gujjars and Bakerwals, who oppose the inclusion of upper caste Paharis in the ST list are gaining steam in J&K. They have threatened to hit the streets along with their cattle if the Centre fails to withdraw the Bills intro­duced in Parliament. Advocate Guftar Ahmed Chowdhary, a pro­minent Gujjar youth lead­er, told The Hindu that “Our struggle is to safe­ guard the Constitution. It’s a political fight to protect the rights of tribals, not on­ly those in J&K but also those living across the country. The BJP’s move to include the upper caste Pa­haris is a grave provoca­tion. You see what is hap­pening in Manipur. The BJP is anti­-tribal and intends to pit one community against another”. The news reports seem to indicate that the Gujjars and Bakerwals have understood the ongoing ethnic conflict in Manipur as a clash related to the proposal for inclusion of Meitei community in the list of STs in Manipur. In fact, the ongoing conflict was triggered by the Manipur High Court Order in WP(C) No. 229 of 2023 dated 27th March 2023 (became public only when uploaded on 19.04.2023 in the HC website) and the protest rally by ST students on 3rd May 2023 turned violent.

(3) The Indian Express newspaper on 25th July 2023 reported that a bill has been introduced in Parliament by the Ministry of Social Justice & Empowerment on 24th of July 2023 for inclusion of two communities in Chhattisgarh in the list of Scheduled Castes. It further stated that the Chhattisgarh government has proposed inclusion of ‘Mahar’ and ‘Mahari’ communities in the list of SCs which has been accepted by both the Registrar General of India (RGI) and the National Commission for Scheduled Castes. This piece of news showed part of the process in the government of India for consideration of proposals from the state government.

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(4) These two news are significant in respect of demand of Meitei community for inclusion in the list of STs for Manipur especially in the backdrop of the Manipur High Court order dated 27th March 2023 directing the first respondent (government of Manipur) to submit the recommendation within 4 weeks in reply to the letter No.1902005/2012- C&IM dated 29.5.2013 of the Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India. The time period to act on the Orders of the High Court has been extended to one year as prayed for by the state government and it will expire around the last week of March 2024.

(5) In the context of the two letters from the Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India mentioned in the court’s order namely, letter No.1902005/2012- C&IM dated 29.5.2013 and letter of even no. 31.5.2022, two important requirements for submitting proposal for inclusion in the list of STs were pointed out and they are:-

(i) for the government of Manipur to send specific recommendation along with the latest socio-economic survey and ethnographic report (Letter dated 29.5.2013), and
(ii) that the Scheduled Tribes (STs) are notified under Article 342 of the Constitution. Government of India had on 15.6.1999 (and further revised on 25.6.2002) approved modalities for determining claims for inclusion in and other modifications in list of STs. As per those modalities only proposals recommended and justified by the state Government concerned and agreed to by RGI as well as National Commission for Scheduled Tribe (NCST) are considered for amendment of legislation. All the actions are taken as per approved modalities. The recommendation of the concerned State Government is pre-requisite to process the case further (letter dated 31.5.2022).

(6) The Manipur High Court in WP(C) No. 229 of 2023 dated 27th March 2023 had directed the state government “to consider the case of the petitioners for inclusion of the Meetei/Meitei community in the Scheduled Tribe list …”
As advised by the Ministry of Tribal Affairs, the state government should carry out a socio-economic survey and ethnographic study. Government has to take care that the Terms of Reference is framed properly and assign the work to a third party having high credentials and impartiality from outside the state of Manipur upon whom both the Meitei community and current STs of Manipur have faith and confidence.

(7) There is a great fear and trepidation that when the matter for consideration of the proposal for inclusion of Meitei community in the list of ST is taken up by the state government, the Naga community may get dragged into the conflict as they along with the Kuki-Zomi tribes constitute the current STs of the state and may face an existential crisis if state government decides to send a favourable recommendation solely on political consideration. Both these tribal communities together constitute about 41% of the state’s total population while the Meitei constitute 53% and hence the colour of the disagreement could easily turn into tribals versus non-tribals. Again as Meitei community are predominantly Hindus and the tribals of Manipur are predominantly Christians, there is another risk of the disagreement being termed as a Hindu-Christian conflict or a conflict between majority community and minority community. Consideration of the Meitei ST demand matter should therefore be based on transparent scientific approach.

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(8) The Meitei community is an advanced community, which incidentally was stated in the Kaka Kalelkar Report of 1956 wherein he also stated that the Meitei did not include themselves in the Constitution (Scheduled Tribes) Order, 1950 and the report also shows that they did not ask for inclusion in 1956 too. The government of India should not lose sight of the fact that the Meitei community is the largest community in Manipur with more than half of the state’s total population, have 40 MLAs in the state assembly of 60 members, have the largest number of government employees, businessmen, doctors, engineers, expatriate etc, they live in the Imphal city and Imphal valley in close proximity to Imphal city which is connected by all weather roads, water supply, power supply, and has health centres in close proximity of villages, the best hospitals, central universities, higher educational institutes, medical colleges, nursing schools, state Govt offices, High Court, central government offices and institutions and an airport. Further, a large proportion of Meitei community are OBCs (some say upto 90%) and more than 3% are SC and their current status along with the ST status demanded by them begs for constitutional experts to give their comments on its constitutionality.

(9) The STs of Manipur, including those in neighbouring states will need to be alert. They have to consider whether they would be impacted by the proposed inclusion of Meitei community in the list of STs of Manipur. The news paper report stated that the Gujjars and Bakerwals are opposed to the inclusion of upper caste Paharis in the ST list and their protest rallies are gaining steam. The Gujjar is one of the dominant tribes in Himachal Pradesh and one of the largest pastoral communities of India and mainly resides in the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Maharashtra. It appears that the Gujjars feel that the inclusion of upper caste Paharis in the ST list will hurt their interest. Everyone in the north eastern states know the exceptionally high educational attainments of the Meitei community who have the best specialised doctors and professionals besides being highly educated and very competitive that they have been able to enter into the esteemed IAS, IPS and other central services in the general category. Without any doubt, the inclusion of Meitei community in the list of STs in Manipur would definitely hurt the prospects of all STs not only in Manipur, but across India as they are an advanced community, perhaps more advanced than the Meenas of Rajasthan. The possibility of both the Meenas and Meiteis cornering majority of the all India services jobs reserved for ST in the country cannot be ruled out. For the current STs of Manipur, the likelihood that the Meiteis will definitely elbow out the current STs of Manipur from the reservation benefits to almost zero benefits as they are much more advanced and wealthier than the STs of Manipur. The greatest danger for the STs of Manipur is the hidden agenda of the Meitei community to grab tribal lands in the hill areas of Manipur once they become a ST of Manipur state. Given all the these facts there is already an imminent risk of the Naga tribes joining the Kuki-Zomi tribes in their opposition to the inclusion of Meitei community in the list of STs of Manipur as they face an existential crisis of do or die situation. Like the Gujjars and Bakerwals who are opposing the inclusion of upper caste Paharis in the ST list in J&K, this particular demand of the Meitei community for inclusion in the list of ST in Manipur could provoke opposition from the other Naga tribes and Mizo tribes of Nagaland and Mizoram respectively besides the existing STs of the entire north eastern states.

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(10) A word of caution for the STs of Manipur. The ST political class and ST intelligentsia of Manipur should act as the watch dog and ensure that:-
(a) the subject of inclusion of SC/ST in the Business of government of Manipur (allocation) rules and in the rules of business of government of Manipur remains with the department of Tribal Affairs & Hills.
(b) The proposal for commissioning a socio-economic survey and ethnographic study along with its terms of reference, the composition and structure of the survey/study should be referred to the Hill Areas Committee (HAC) for deliberation, views and recommendations as provided under Article 371-C of the constitution and the Presidential notification dated 20th June 1972.
(c) The proposal should be dealt with by the department of Tribal Affairs & Hills and placed before the state cabinet along with the views and recommendations of the HAC for specific decisions of the state government.
(d) The newspaper reports seem to suggest that information on the inclusion of certain communities in the list of ST or SC became known when bills were introduced in Parliament. These news report seems to indicate that the proposal in respect of inclusion of Meitei community in the list of STs of Manipur would have to be deliberated in the state government which means, amongst the political parties, the HAC, cabinet and in the government before it is sent to the Government of India (GoI). STs of Manipur have to be hyper alert to ensure that any proposal in respect of inclusion of Meitei community in the list of STs of Manipur is not sent surreptitiously behind the back of elected representatives from the hill areas and the STs of Manipur.

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(e) The newspaper reports in both cases made no mention of the latest socio-economic survey and ethnographic report being carried out which should be the job of the state government concerned to determine the prevailing socio-economic status and the ethnicity of the community demanding inclusion in the list of ST. The Ministry of Tribal Affairs in letter dated 29.5.2013 has stated specifically the requirements for the latest socio-economic survey report and ethnographic study in respect of the demand of Meitei community for inclusion in the list of STs of Manipur. It is crucial, for the sake of transparency, fairness, justice, peace and harmony in the state of Manipur, that a socio-economic survey and ethnographic report is prepared and the proposal considered based on the findings in the reports. This approach would be a scientific one and not based on political consideration and exigencies.
(f) Considering the recent developments reported in the newspaper in respect of amendments to the constitution (scheduled tribes) order, 1950, every ST individual in Manipur and those in other states, who are likely to be affected by the proposal for inclusion of Meitei community in the list of STs, should be very vigilant as it seems to suggest that the only requirement needed to carry out these days is political consideration. The manner in which the Manipur government had handled WP(C) No. 229 of 2023 in the Manipur high court and secured a favourable oral order dated 27th March 2023 (but became public only on 19th April 2023 when it was hosted on the court’s website) is an indication of the manner the Meitei dominated Manipur government is working only for the interest of Meiteis and not public interest. The state government counsels and the standing counsel of the Union of India (UoI) are all Meiteis and they did not utter a single word or asked for time which is the normal practise to get the views of the state government and the union government. The Writ petition appears to suffer from non-joinder of affected party as not even a single ST was made a respondent. It was a writ petition filed by the Meiteis, all advocates both private and government are Meiteis and only the petitioner’s case was heard and incorporated in the order of the court. The entire episode was enacted with stealth behind the back of the STs of Manipur who are the affected party. The STs have to be vigilant.
(g) Persons or Civil Social Organisations (CSOs) who are likely to be impacted by the proposal for inclusion of Meitei community in the list of STs should file RTIs in the Ministry of Tribal Affairs, GoI and seek information which would be useful to counter the ST demand by Meiteis. Some of the RTI should seek information on whether there was a latest socio-economic survey and ethnographic report in respect of the proposal for inclusion of Paharis, Gadda Brahmins and Koli in the list of STs for J& K. This is important to understand how the ST demands in other states of India has been dealt with recently.

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(11) The current ongoing ethnic conflict is a conflict over tribal lands in the hill areas by Meitei community becoming ST. This aspect is downplayed by the state government. Rather, it is propagating narco-terrorism narrative and incursion and settlements of illegal immigrants from Myanmar as the main causes of the ongoing conflict which many suspect to be just red herrings and smoke screen to hide and camouflage the real motives behind the ongoing violence. Narco-terrorism narrative is getting exposed as false in view of unprecedented seizure of huge quantities of drug taking place in Mizoram since the ethnic conflict started in Manipur. The amount of drug seizures in Mizoram has increased exponentially and this means only one thing; that the cross border drug movement which was passing through Manipur has now shifted to Mizoram. The drugs grown in the hill slopes is minuscule and will not even be a decimal fraction of the cross border drug trade allegedly taking place through Manipur. The alleged huge area of poppy cultivation in Manipur mainly goes towards manufacturing of hashish. The current crisis is not at all narco-terrorism where poppy plantations and drug factories are protected by powerful drug lords. It is not about illegal immigrants as the number of illegal immigrants are only a few thousands of people. It is all about Meiteis motive of occupying tribal land in the hill areas of Manipur and to do this the Meitei community want to be ST by deceit or subterfuge and by hook or by crook. They almost passed through the first stage by obtaining a favourable order from the Manipur high court. This order is under review in the Manipur high court after the Supreme Court decided that the Appeal should be heard in the Manipur high court.

(12) The desperation of Meitei community to be declared as a tribe can be understood from the utterance of the Meitei professor who justified brutality to claim that Meiteis are tribal people; the surreptitious manner of obtaining a favourable order from the Manipur high court, and the autocratic manner of by-passing the department of Tribal Affairs & Hills and the State Cabinet by not obtaining their views when the WP(C) No. 229 of 2023 came up in the Manipur High Court on 27th March 2023. By doing this the state government hoped to send the proposal for inclusion of Meitei community in the list of STs of Manipur to the central government riding on the back of the Manipur High Court order. STs of Manipur need to be alert to the vicious and devious devices of the Meitei community.

(13) The state government has sufficient time to think on how it would like to proceed on the matter. They should not try and rush the matter in the last hour or adopt trickery, ruse, force or autocratic approaches which would be out right foolhardy. Transparency and following due processes of administration and law would be more acceptable to both parties than subterfuge and deceit. Any wrong move by a partisan government would be disastrous as everyone is watching and waited with bated breath what the state government proposes to do on the demand of Meitei community for inclusion in the list of STs of Manipur. A mis-step in the implementation of the Manipur High Court order could potentially drag the Naga tribes into the current conflict when it faced with an existential crisis. If the actions of the state government on the demand of Meitei community for inclusion in the list of STs of Manipur is interpreted as an existential crisis for the STs of Manipur, then it would trigger a civil war in the state of Manipur.

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(14) Considering the weak and lackadaisical approach of the state government to recover the remaining 4000 firearms and lakhs of ammunition which are still in the hands of various Meitei groups, it is becoming doubtful if the state government is actually serious in getting back the guns. The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has been earnestly trying their best to conclude the Indo-Naga Peace talks and the Suspension of Operation (SoO) talks, but with every passing day it is becoming doubtful whether any peace deal can be worked out as long as the looted guns are in the hands of various Meitei groups. Under this situation, how would the Kuki-Zomi SoO and the Naga fighters ever agree to lay down arms without the Meitei insurgents being part of the peace process? As there is no serious efforts going on to recover the looted guns and ammunition, the likelihood that these arms being used in any conflict arising in the near future against any community opposed to the proposal of inclusion of Meitei community in the list of STs in Manipur cannot be ruled out.

(15) There is an imminent risk that the progress made so far by Ministry of Home Affairs, government of India with the armed groups in the Indo-Naga peace talks and the SoO talks may not yield any result as long as the looted guns are not recovered and the Meitei insurgents group stay out of the peace process. The situation may also come in the way of settlements with Eastern Naga People’s Organisation (ENPO), Tipra Motha, and Kuki-Zomi separate administration demand. All armed groups laying down fire arms at a time would be a critical pre-requisite for lasting peace in Manipur. The MHA has to wake up to this stark reality if peace has to return to Manipur and a Big Bang solution worked out covering all troubled states in the north eastern region before the next parliamentary elections of 2024.

Ngaranmi Shimray is an activist and political observer based in New Delhi. View are personal.

Shimray2011@gmail.com